A 4–2 Team, A Quarterback Ranked Near The Bottom: ESPN Reports Denver’s Bo Nix Plan

The Denver Broncos are 4–2 and second in the AFC West. Their quarterback’s numbers say something else. In a report published Friday, ESPN’s Jeff Legwold — the network’s Broncos beat reporter, writing from Englewood, Colorado, off conversations with more than a dozen sources around the league — laid out what sources in and around the team say is the most likely path if Bo Nix’s play does not improve dramatically: exercise his contract’s fifth-year option next spring, take a wait-and-see approach into the 2027 season, and consider adding quarterback depth in the offseason. In Legwold’s words: “Sources in and around the team say if his play doesn’t improve dramatically, the most likely scenario would be the Broncos exercising the contract’s fifth-year option next spring, then taking a wait-and-see approach into the 2027 season, much as the Houston Texans and Carolina Panthers have done this year with C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young, respectively. The idea of adding additional quarterback depth in the offseason would be broached in this scenario.”

The numbers behind the conversation: through six games, among qualifying quarterbacks, Nix ranks 31st in QBR (38.2), 32nd in yards per attempt (5.6) and 36th of 37 in success rate (36.1%) — only Tampa Bay’s undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels ranks lower. He is 30th in completion percentage over expectation (−4.0%, per NFL Next Gen Stats) and 32nd in air yards per attempt (5.4), tied for the second-lowest mark by any quarterback since 2000, per ESPN Research. Denver is tied for the third-fewest explosive plays in the league (20) and ranks second in three-and-out rate (31.8%) — and Nix is among the least-pressured quarterbacks in football, pressured on 31.2% of dropbacks, fewer than all but four qualifiers. His season line: 60.3% completions, 1,049 yards, 6 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, including 107 passing yards against Seattle on October 15, his second straight game under 125.

The counterweight is the record. Nix is 28–12 as a regular-season starter and 15–2 in one-score games since the start of 2025, and Denver’s first six opponents included three of the league’s top four scoring defenses — Kansas City, Jacksonville and San Francisco.

One theory among Legwold’s sources is the aftereffects of two offseason ankle surgeries. Nix fractured his right ankle in January’s divisional-round win over Buffalo and missed the AFC Championship Game, and his recovery from the two surgeries took almost the entire offseason. Nix denies it is a factor: asked earlier this season whether the surgeries or the recovery had affected his mobility or his willingness to run, he paused and said, “No.” On Wednesday he reaffirmed he is “not scared” and “not physically worried” about the ankle, said his second surgery was six months ago and recovery is still ongoing — “it takes a while for things to fully reengage” — and said his strength coach has told him he is “hitting better speeds than I have since being here.” The rushing numbers, though, are down sharply: 37 yards on 22 carries (1.7 per carry) with no run of 10 or more yards, against 124 yards on 33 carries through six games last season and 180 on 37 as a rookie.

Coach Sean Payton has not entertained a change. Asked Monday whether he had considered sitting Nix for backup Jarrett Stidham, Payton said: “To answer your question, no. He’s going to become the byproduct of all the finer things that get improved… So, it starts with all of us.” Payton reassumed play-calling duties from offensive coordinator Davis Webb before the Week 5 win at the Chargers on October 11. NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported around October 17 that he is hearing nothing from the Broncos suggesting a quarterback change is being considered, and that Nix’s teammates “love him.” Prime Video analyst Ryan Fitzpatrick, on the October 15 broadcast, called Nix’s Seattle performance “garbage.”

The money frames the decision. The fifth-year option, exercised in the spring of 2027, would pay Nix just over $25 million at this season’s figure for his tier — his current deal averages $4.653 million a year, with a 2027 cap hit of $5.084 million. Mel Kiper Jr.’s early Big Board for the 2027 draft class includes seven quarterbacks in his top 25, though Legwold cautions it is unclear when or if the Broncos would consider a long look at the top of the quarterback board. The other branch of the report runs the opposite way: if Nix and the offense rebound significantly and Denver solidifies as a Super Bowl contender, a long-term deal — what Legwold frames as a “life-altering, nine-digit contract” — gets far more consideration. Owner Greg Penner said before the season: “Obviously, we want Bo here long term, but… I’ll leave that to George [Paton] and Sean [Payton].” Next up: Denver at Arizona on Sunday, 4:05 p.m. Eastern on CBS — against a Cardinals defense that has allowed a league-worst 8.6 yards per pass attempt.