Israel’s final opinion polls, published on Friday, October 23, in the last round of surveying permitted before Tuesday’s election, agree on one point: neither bloc can form a government on these numbers alone. Channel 13, Channel 12 and Kan 11 each put the bloc seeking to replace Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of Netanyahu’s own bloc, and each leaves both short of the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.
The three surveys differ in size but not in shape. Channel 13 gives the change bloc 54 seats, Netanyahu’s bloc 50 and the Arab parties 16. Channel 12 gives 56, 50 and 14. Kan 11, the public broadcaster, gives 52, 50 and 14. In each survey the Arab parties hold the balance on paper, and in each, neither leading bloc counts them as a governing partner: Gadi Eisenkot, whose party Yashar leads the change bloc in the polls and who has rejected relying on Arab parties to form a government, would still need partners beyond his bloc, and Netanyahu’s bloc does not govern with the Arab parties either.
The Final Polls, In Short
- Channel 13: change bloc 54, Netanyahu bloc 50, Arab parties 16.
- Channel 12: change bloc 56, Netanyahu bloc 50, Arab parties 14.
- Kan 11: change bloc 52, Netanyahu bloc 50, Arab parties 14.
- Nine-outlet average: the outgoing coalition at 50.2 seats; Eisenkot’s Yashar first in 8 of the 9 polls.
- The outliers: i24NEWS/Direct Polls gives the Netanyahu bloc 59 and the Eisenkot bloc 47; Channel 14/NEXT DATA projects an unchanged 62-seat Netanyahu majority.
The Polls That Point The Other Way
Two surveys break sharply from the rest, and they are reported here as what they are — outliers next to the three mainstream polls, not ingredients to be averaged away. i24NEWS, using Direct Polls, puts Netanyahu’s bloc at 59 seats, within reach of a majority with a small partner, and the Eisenkot bloc at 47. Channel 14, using NEXT DATA, projects Netanyahu’s bloc keeping an outright majority of 62 seats. Set against those two, an average of nine published polls has the outgoing coalition at 50.2 seats, with Yashar placed first in eight of the nine.
The arithmetic is the story both camps are working from. On Channel 12’s numbers, the most favorable of the three mainstream surveys for the change bloc, Eisenkot’s side is five seats short of 61 and Netanyahu’s is eleven short. On Kan 11’s, the gaps are nine and eleven. Even the friendliest outlier for Netanyahu, i24NEWS, leaves his bloc two seats short and dependent on a partner outside it. Whoever President Herzog mandates will have to build past the bloc totals these polls project.
What Happens Tuesday
Israelis vote on Tuesday, October 27, in the country’s first election since the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023. Eisenkot, 66, commanded the Israel Defense Forces from 2015 to 2019 and founded Yashar in September 2025; the party holds no seats in the outgoing Knesset. Netanyahu leads Likud and the bloc of parties that has governed through the war. Publication of new polls is barred in the final days before the vote, which makes Friday’s surveys the last of the campaign. Official results are due by November 4. After them, President Isaac Herzog consults the parties and gives one leader the mandate to try to assemble a coalition of at least 61.
Sources: Haaretz; Davies Daily reporting.
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