Three Days Out: Democrats Lead The Final Polls As Early Voting Passes 48.5 Million

WASHINGTON — Three days before the November 3 midterms, Democrats lead the final national polls, early voting has passed the whole of the 2022 early vote with days to spare, and the country’s leading election forecaster moved a dozen House races toward the Democrats on Friday. President Donald Trump closes the campaign the way he has run it — in person: a Florida rally on Friday, his cancelled Iowa and Kansas rallies restored for Sunday, and nearly 20 telephone rallies stacked into the final days.

The Polls: An Eight-Point Democratic Lead

The RealClearPolling average of the national generic congressional ballot puts Democrats at 51.4 percent and Republicans at 43.2 percent — a lead of 8.2 points for the party out of power, in a cycle in which all 435 House seats are up for election. A separate Economist/YouGov survey released on Thursday found that 44 percent of registered voters expect Democrats to control the House after Tuesday, against 31 percent who expect Republicans to hold it. Forecasters see the same direction of travel: Democrats are heavily favoured to take the House, where they need a net gain of five seats, while Senate races — Republicans defend a 53–47 majority, and Democrats need four gains — keep moving, on balance, in the Democrats’ direction.

48.5 Million Votes Already Cast

The early vote has become a story in itself. As of Friday afternoon, more than 48.5 million people had cast a ballot, in person or by mail, according to the University of Florida Election Lab — already past the 45.9 million who voted early in the whole of the 2022 midterms, with a weekend of early voting and Election Day itself still to come. Among the early voters, as the Daily reported on Friday, is Pope Leo, the Chicago-born pontiff, who returned a mail ballot in Chicago and became the first pope to vote in a US election.

Cook Moves A Dozen Races

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter shifted a dozen House races in the Democrats’ favour on Friday. Cook counts 18 toss-up House races in districts across California, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, North Carolina, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia — and Republicans are defending all but four of those seats. In the Senate, Cook also moved the Florida and Nebraska races away from the Republicans on Friday, in the direction of Florida Democrat Angie Nixon and Nebraska independent Dan Osborn, and rates seven Senate races as toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. In Florida, the Senate contest between incumbent Republican Senator Ashley Moody and Nixon moved from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.”

Trump’s Closing Sprint

Trump was slated to rally in Daytona Beach, Florida, on Friday, campaigning in the state where he is a registered voter. His two previously cancelled Midwestern rallies are back on: back-to-back rallies on Sunday in Dubuque, Iowa, and Salina, Kansas, alongside nearly 20 telerallies in the last days before the election. Both Sunday stops land in toss-up Senate states — in Kansas, Republican Senator Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton in what the Kansas Reflector calls the most expensive election in the state’s history; in Iowa, Republican Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic state legislator Josh Turek contest an open seat. Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to rally on Monday in Swanton, Ohio, where appointed Republican Senator Jon Husted faces former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown in another toss-up. Trump campaigns against anemic approval ratings, in States Newsroom’s characterisation, amid the war with Iran and its effect on gas and diesel prices. What the final weekend tests is whether the president’s presence can still move the voters his party needs — in the states where the Senate, and with it half of Congress’s power, will actually be decided.

Sources: States Newsroom — reporting of October 30, 2026 (Cook Political Report shifts; University of Florida Election Lab figures; rally schedules); RealClearPolling generic-ballot average; Economist/YouGov survey, October 29, 2026; Reuters, October 30, 2026 (rallies restored).