Vance Says It Out Loud: ‘The Reason We Lost Is The War’

The Republican argument about why Tuesday happened began on Wednesday, and it was started by the vice president. In a lengthy post on X — his first public comments on the election — JD Vance wrote the sentence his party has been circling since the results came in: “The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.” Then he kept going. “But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone,” Vance wrote. “If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.” He dismissed the turnout explanation his party usually reaches for: “Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.” And he cited the evidence a pollster who, in his words, “nailed the results” had gathered from defecting 2024 Trump voters asked what would bring them back: “The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel.”

The war Vance is describing began on February 28, when the United States (Operation Epic Fury) and Israel (Operation Roaring Lion) struck Iran and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed on the first day. It has run, in one form or another, for eight months: a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire in April; the Islamabad Memorandum in June, the first agreement signed by American and Iranian presidents since 1979, which collapsed in July; blockades imposed, lifted and reimposed; and a present state of low-intensity conflict — an American naval blockade, Iranian attacks on shipping including a tanker struck off Qatar on Wednesday, intermittent American strikes including limited ones on targets near Hormuz on November 2, and negotiations through Qatari and Pakistani mediators that produced no breakthrough in Doha on November 1. There is no ceasefire in force. Vance’s place in it is not incidental: he was the administration’s lead negotiator with Iran, fronting the delegation at the Islamabad talks, and was reported at the time to be an internal skeptic of the decision to attack. His post noted, approvingly, that Rachel Campos-Duffy’s earlier call for a diplomatic resolution of the war — attacked by others in the party on Monday — had been sound advice. The concrete mechanism he is pointing at is visible at any gas station: the average American price of gasoline was $4.12 a gallon on November 4, according to AAA, against $3.05 a year earlier.

President Trump’s answer has been consistent across every microphone put in front of him since Tuesday night. To the Wall Street Journal: “Iran was a piece of it” — and: “I don’t think about it. I did the right thing. I would have done it again.” To Fox Business: “I don’t think it’s the war, I think it’s the gasoline prices… The cause of the gasoline is Iran.” And on Wednesday, speaking to reporters at the White House ballroom construction site: “I think it’s largely true because it drove the gasoline up a little bit short term. But at the same time, if I had it to do again, I’d have to do it again because long term, it’s the only answer. You can’t let Iran have a nuclear weapon… We stopped [Iran] from having a nuclear weapon, and they’ll never have a nuclear weapon… I would have done nothing different. We’ve totally broken their military.” The president also shut down the week’s other Washington speculation, that the defeat would cost Pete Hegseth his job at the Pentagon: Hegseth is doing “a very good job,” he said — “terrific actually,” to the Journal — and the White House said he has the president’s “full confidence.” The Journal reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the discussions, that angry Republican lawmakers are nonetheless discussing demanding Hegseth’s removal as the price of a functioning lame-duck session. Representative Thomas Massie has pledged to move to impeach him; the incoming Democratic chairs have pledged investigations of Hegseth and the war alike.

The rest of the party is choosing sides in public. Donald Trump Jr. endorsed his father’s vice president’s post: “Every word of this is 100 100 100.” Marjorie Taylor Greene answered that “blaming the Iran war won’t work, and it’s not going to be an easy pivot,” saying Republicans lost because the administration did not deliver on its campaign promises. Governor Ron DeSantis called the result “close to an extinction-level event for Republicans in many parts of the country”; a former Trump congressional liaison, Marc Short, called it “Complete Armageddon for GOP”; Representative Don Bacon warned: “If we don’t change, we’ll take more beatings.” Iran’s chief negotiator, parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, read the results his way: “Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message.” A Democratic congressman, Sean Casten of Illinois, read Vance his way: “That is not because JD Vance has a soul. It is not because he has a spine. It is because he is an upwardly aspirational Republican who understands that he needs to differentiate himself from Donald Trump.” The war’s political bill has been presented. The argument now is over who pays it — and Vance has made sure it will be held in the open.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg and the Daily Caller (the full text of the vice president’s post), November 4-5, 2026; the Wall Street Journal, Fox Business, USA Today and the New York Post for the president’s remarks; AAA via USA Today for gasoline prices; Investor’s Business Daily for Qalibaf.